Friday, October 12, 2007

Comment: how science silenced the sceptics

Times Online

The award of a Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and climate change scientists illustrates just how far the environmental movement has come in winning the global warming argument.

Ten years ago the idea that the world was warming up, with potentially disastrous consequences, was still hugely contested.

People who installed energy-saving lightbulbs or put on another jumper instead of turning up the thermostat were dismissed as part of the tree-hugging fringe movement.

But the science of climate change has advanced enormously in the past decade and gradually the sceptics have been silenced as their objections were answered.

Sceptics still exist, and many of them have good points to make, but it is they who have been pushed to the fringe of political and scientific debate.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations scientific body which shares the Nobel prize with Mr Gore, can justly claim much of the credit for bringing climate change science in from the cold.

It publishes assessments of the body of evidence for climate change every few years. This year it published its fourth comprehensive assessments.

Each time the IPCC sits down to consider the solidity of hundreds of pieces of research its conclusions are subjected to bot scientific and political scrutiny before they can be published.

Many scientists find this a frustrating process and several briefly walked out this year when political delegates objected to some of what they wanted to say.

But in many ways it is this process of scrutiny that has allowed the IPCC’s pronouncements to have such an impact. Every piece of evidence it presents publicly, every statement it makes has been assessed rigorously.

If it errs at all, it errs on the side of caution and by being able so convincingly to shrug off accusations of exaggeration that it has won credibility for itself and its findings......

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