Republicans forced to turn to their nemesis: John McCain

International Herald Tribune

The Republican political establishment is looking to the devil to deliver them, the man many have depicted as the incarnation of evil: John McCain.

Republicans in the U.S. Congress are petrified about a November debacle, a fear stoked on May 3, when they lost their second straight special election in a district held by Republicans.

The party's fundamental situation is terrible: Republicans are saddled with an enormously unpopular president, a war, a troubled economy and a Democratic opposition that's being energized by important constituent groups.

"The generics are as bad as anytime since I have been here," said Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican and one of the most politically astute members of Congress in either party. Davis, a 14-year veteran, is retiring this year, frustrated with his party's long-term prospects.

In a delicious irony, the one bright spot is McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. A few months ago, McCain spoke to the party's caucus in the House of Representatives and said that he would campaign in any district where he was wanted and stay out of any where he would be a liability.

"I don't know of anyone that doesn't want him in," said Representative Ray LaHood, an Illinois Republican who is also retiring.

This is turning history on its head. Not long ago, the independent-minded McCain was vilified by his party's leaders.

Tom DeLay - the former Republican majority leader who was once the most powerful official the House had had in years - complained that McCain "has done more to hurt the Republican Party than any elected official I know of." Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert once suggested that McCain, a decorated prisoner of war in Vietnam, didn't understand sacrifice.

This year, Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi said the thought of a McCain presidency "sends a cold chill down my spine." His former Mississippi colleague, Trent Lott, has endorsed McCain; eight years earlier, Lott's comments about the Arizona lawmaker were unprintable.

The czar of conservative talk radio, Rush Limbaugh, said earlier this year that a McCain nomination would "destroy" Republicans: "He has stabbed his own party in the back I can't tell you how many times."

There is a situational element to these attitudes; McCain is fine when he's useful to them.

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, facing an uphill re-election struggle in 2006, brought his old enemy into the state and tried to bask in his popularity. After Santorum was defeated, he reverted to form and trashed McCain.

Similarly, the epiphany that many Republican officeholders have recently had about McCain is about their own fate: They're scared. Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg are the twin towers of Washington election-watchers; much of the conventional wisdom in this town originates with them.

As of today, they both see the Democrats adding 5 to 10 seats to their House majority and gaining 3 to 6 Senate seats this November; that may be conservative.

With few other reeds, embattled Republicans see McCain as a lifeboat. They know voters don't like President George W. Bush or being in bed with sleazy special interests. That's the identity of the national party.

Few Republican lawmakers are viewed as more independent from Bush than is McCain - the two men really don't like each other - nor has there been any greater champion of ethics in politics than the 71-year-old senator.

McCain also provides cover on issues that plague the Republican image: the party's immigration bashing and its insensitivity to environmental concerns, especially climate change.

The odds, however, are that Republicans are deluding themselves - or at least exaggerating McCain's coattails.

In addition to the unfavorable political environment, Democrats have won the important initial rounds in House and Senate races. In the House, they have recruited several dozen potentially solid challengers; the Republicans' candidate-recruitment efforts, by their admission, have been disappointing.

In rating the current competitive House seats - about 1 in 10 - both Cook and Rothenberg see 50 percent more Republican-held seats at risk.

There's a similar pattern in the Senate. More than a half-dozen strong Democratic candidates are competing for Republican-held seats in states from Maine to New Mexico. As of today, there's possibly one vulnerable Democratic incumbent, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and that may be a stretch.

Moreover, the Democratic campaign chairmen, Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Senator Charles Schumer of New York, have run circles around the opposition.

At the end of the first quarter, the two Democratic campaign committees had $82.1 million in the bank - over three times more than the $24.5 million held by Republicans. In two-thirds of the most competitive House contests, the Democrats have more money...................