Staying in Iraq: $25 Billion per Year... Forever

Wired News

The White House is once again talking about the half-century-long U.S. involvement in Korea as a model for Iraq's future. Such an approach would be brutally expensive -- costing as much as $25 billion per year for decades to come, according to a new study from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. That’s on top of the
$567 billion already committed to the war.

That could bring the final price tag for the Iraq enterprise up to $2 trillion, according to a statement from Senate Budget Committee chairman Kent Conrad.

The office of CBO has previously projected that war costs could reach $1 trillion over the 2009-2017
period, assuming a gradual drawdown to 75,000 deployed U.S. troops. Based on CBO’s new report,
which projects the annual cost of permanently maintaining 55,000 U.S. troops in Iraq (roughly the
equivalent of the U.S. commitment in South Korea), it could cost another $1 trillion (in constant FY
‘08 dollars) for operations in Iraq over the 2018 to 2057 period. In other words, taken together,
CBO’s reports show that the long-term presence in Iraq envisioned by the Bush administration
could cost $2 trillion over the next 50 years.

The CBO study, conducted in response to a request from Conrad, examines "costs under two scenarios: a 'combat' scenario, which would involve rotating military units into and out of Iraq to sustain U.S. operations in a combat environment (as is now being done); and a 'noncombat' scenario, which would involve stationing specific military units indefinitely at established bases in the region in a less hostile environment."

Under the combat scenario that CBO considered, the United States would maintain a long-term presence of approximately 55,000 military personnel in Iraq, deploying military units and their associated personnel there for specific periods and then returning them to their permanent bases either in the United States or overseas. The scenario also incorporates the assumption that units deployed to Iraq would operate at the same pace and conduct the same types of missions as the forces currently deployed there. In CBO’s estimation, this scenario could have one-time costs of $4 billion to $8 billion and annual costs of approximately $25 billion...

Under the noncombat scenario that CBO analyzed, the United States would maintain a long-term presence of approximately 55,000 military personnel in Iraq by indefinitely stationing specific units at established bases there in a manner similar to the current practice of assigning personnel to units based in Korea or Germany. The scenario incorporates the assumption of much less intense military operations than those under the combat scenario. Under this noncombat alternative, units stationed in Iraq would rarely, if ever, be engaged in combat operations. Up-front costs (mainly for construction) under the noncombat scenario.