Monday, October 01, 2012

Upset Brewing In Florida Congressional Race As Patrick Murphy Takes Lead Over Allen West

SPRINGFIELD, Mass., Sept. 30, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- According to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of registered "likely" voters in Florida's 18th Congressional District, Democrat Patrick Murphy has a 4 point lead over Republican Congressman Allen West (49 percent to 45 percent) with 6 percent undecided. The figure is within the survey's 4.8 percent margin of error.
President Obama holds a 7 point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (52 percent to 45 percent) with 3 percent undecided.
The data suggests that Murphy's base support is coming out of Palm Beach County with 58% of the vote while West's base support is in Martin County (52 percent of the vote). St. Lucie County is a toss-up with 47% of voters supporting West and 46% supporting Murphy. Contrary to popular opinion younger voters 18-39 years old are breaking toward the Republican candidates by a wide margin. The pollster, Spencer Kimball, President of Kimball Political Consulting said "West holds a 25 point lead with the younger voters but since the district is made up of older voters he needs to persuade those 50-59 years old to vote for him.  Murphy currently carries this age group by 17 points."
The most important issue facing likely voters in Florida is jobs at 30 percent followed by the deficit (26 percent) and healthcare (25%).
Voters are split on who they trust to solve the job issue with 49% voting for West and 48% voting for Murphy.
The district wide survey of 408 Florida likely voters was conducted September 28, 2012, using automated telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.8 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Methodology, Analysis, Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available on the following link below.

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