Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Critics: GDP fails ‘commonsense sniff test’

NEW YORK - It was a rare bit of stellar economic news. The Commerce Department revised Gross Domestic Product upward last month, saying the broad measure of the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent for the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of 1.9 percent.

One problem: A vocal group of analysts and economists isn't buying it.

"Quite frankly, we do not think the report passes the economic commonsense sniff test," wrote economists John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros at RDQ Economics.

GDP measures the market value of everything produced by labor, plants and properties in the U.S. — a total of $14.3 trillion for the second quarter. The government agency charged with calculating the first estimate of each quarter's GDP has less time to do so than a ten-branch bank has to file an earnings report.

GDP is a crucial variable in setting monetary policy, such as short-term interest rates, but critics say the effort to gather and calculate the data is underfunded, hobbled by government agency infighting and overly reliant on assumptions.

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