About Those Texas Caucus "Results" ...

Talking Points Memo

A lot of readers have wondered why the Texas caucuses have been so slow to report to the media. The answer: They're not reporting in great numbers anymore, and they don't actually have to.

Nonetheless, we might still have a decent estimate of the final result for you to consider.

Hector Nieto, spokesperson for the Texas Democratic Party, explained to Election Central that the caucuses elected delegates to the state Senatorial district conventions that will then elect delegates to the state convention, and weren't required to report to the state party headquarters. The results that have come in came from a voluntary system set up in order to help the media get an idea of what to expect the final delegate result to be.

On the assumption that the current results coming from all around the state represent a decent cross-section of the state as a whole, and that all the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama district delegates show up to their conventions in their proper proportions, we can make an educated guess.

Give or take, Obama would get 37 delegates to Hillary's 30 delegates, netting Obama a +3 delegate advantage for the combined Texas prima-caucus. "This is believed to be a good sample of what's available throughout the state," Nieto said. "And if this trend continues, one could estimate that."

Bottom line: Hillary's overall gain for March 4, which had 370 total delegates up for grabs, will be about +8.