Crunch year ahead for Iraq

BBC

More so than any other since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, 2008 is set to be a make-or-break year for Iraq.

The country ended 2007 on a high.

The last third of the year saw a dramatic improvement in the security situation in many of the most troubled areas, including much of Baghdad.

The number of attacks of all sorts, and the ensuing casualties, showed a sustained decline.

But none of the threats to Iraq's stability and future has been definitively defeated.

None of the factors feeding into the improvement is irreversible.

Window of opportunity

And there have been many warnings that if the security gains are not underpinned by political and economic measures, they risk being squandered.

So there is a window of opportunity which could close sharply if it is not exploited.

If things go well, 2008 could see the security improvement consolidated further, with revitalised Iraqi army and police forces taking the lead. The centre could be strengthened by nation-building legislation and political reconciliation, and the new stability could give birth to an economic surge that would add to the positive dynamic.

But that vision could turn out to be a pipe dream - it is not hard to imagine a much grimmer scenario, such as:

* bickering Iraqi politicians fail to rise above their differences and agree vital legislation, which is already months behind schedule and would weld the country together

* as US forces start to thin out to pre-surge levels by July 2008, al-Qaeda begins to make a comeback

* Sunni "local security" forces established by the US, clash with Shia militias, which laid low until the American grip loosened

* Iraq disintegrates into sectarian strife, perhaps descends into unequivocal civil war.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has said that 2008 will be the year of reconstruction and development, following what he says is the defeat of al-Qaeda and terrorism...........