NYT
We’re about to find out how resilient Barack Obama is.
I was not one of those who thought, during those frantic, giddy, sleepless few days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, that Mr. Obama was on his way to a blowout win.
When I mentioned my skepticism to reporters at an Obama rally in Derry on Sunday, everyone insisted he was romping to victory. “Double digits,” said one reporter.
This certainty was based on poll results and the size and enthusiasm of the Obama crowds. But poll results have been unreliable for decades when it comes to black candidates and white voters. And I wrote in a column that ran on election day that whenever Senator Obama would ask how many people in his overflow crowds were still undecided, about a third would raise their hands.
I was not predicting an Obama defeat. I just had a strong sense that the news media, feeding on itself, had lost sight of reality and that the election was bound to be close.
I could also sense how hard the Clinton camp was working to undermine Senator Obama’s main theme, that a campaign based on hope and healing could unify, rather than further polarize, the country.
So there was the former president chastising the press for the way it was covering the Obama campaign and saying of Mr. Obama’s effort: “The whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.”
And there was Mrs. Clinton telling the country we don’t need “false hopes,” and taking cheap shots at, of all people, the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
We’d already seen Clinton surrogates trying to implant the false idea that Mr. Obama might be a Muslim, and perhaps a drug dealer to boot. It struck me that the prediction of so many commentators that Senator Obama was about to run away with the nomination, and bury the Clintons in the process, was the real fairy tale.
The importance of Senator Obama’s effort was getting lost in the craziness. His message of hope and change had captured the Iowa caucuses and excited many thousands in the snowy precincts of New Hampshire.
The significance of his achievement did not lie in whether he would win the presidency (or any given caucus or primary) but in the fact that he might well be fashioning a positive change in the very character of the nation — in the way we view one another, and in our approach to the political process, and our willingness to climb off the couch and participate in it.
He was drawing young people into the process and exciting people across party lines.
The big deal was that Senator Obama, defying every stereotype, was making it easier for people, frustrated by the status quo, to dare to hope and believe in the country again. The early success of his candidacy, whether it would ultimately triumph or not, meant that the system was still open to outsiders and progressives and the young. Democracy American-style was still vital and dynamic and open to change. That was no small thing.
But the uncontrolled hype, with its predictions of a blowout in New Hampshire that could all but seal the nomination and shatter the Clinton dynasty, meant that even a modest victory by Senator Obama — a one- or two- or three-point win — would be characterized as a defeat.
And there were disturbing signs that Senator Obama himself had bought into the hype. There’s a fine line between brash and cocky. You can’t embark on a quest as audacious as Mr. Obama’s without a certain brashness. But cocky turns people off. And the senator seemed at times to stray across that line.
Until New Hampshire, his tone had been pitch-perfect, and often magnificent. But you knew instantly that it was a blunder during last Saturday night’s debate, in a moment that cried out for a touch of personal grace, to dismiss Senator Clinton as “likable enough.”
And in response to Mr. Clinton’s ranting, Mr. Obama told reporters: “I understand he’s feeling a little frustrated right now.” The senator believed he was winning big, and he wasn’t trying to hide it.
Pride, the nuns told me in grammar school, goeth before a fall. It may not be fair that the Clintons seem to be forgiven every sin while Mr. Obama’s margin of error is tiny at best. But it was Jack Kennedy, one of Mr. Obama’s important models, who liked to tell us that life is not fair.
Mr. Obama has one hell of a fight on his hands. Generals from throughout history would tell him not to cede the high ground.
No comments:
Post a Comment