Civil war in Iraq 'most likely'

BBC

Civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, Britain's outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned, in a confidential memo to ministers obtained by the BBC.
William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

He did also say that "the position is not hopeless" - but said Iraq would remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years.

The Foreign Office said it did not comment on leaked documents.

However, it added: "Every day the capacity of the Iraqi security forces to manage their own security is growing.

"A process has begun of progressively handing over responsibility for security in Iraq's provinces."

On Wednesday at least 12 people, many of them children, were killed in bomb attacks while playing football in west Baghdad.


The bleak assessment of the country's future was contained in Mr Patey's final e-cable, or diplomatic telegram, from Baghdad.

The distribution list includes the UK prime minister, foreign secretary, defence secretary, leader of the House of Commons, and senior military commanders in both Iraq and the UK.

Mr Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.

"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt."

Talking about the Shia militias blamed for many killings, Mr Patey added: "If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the Jaish al-Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) from developing into a state with a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority."

Overall, says BBC correspondent Paul Wood, "it is a devastating official assessment of the prospects for a peaceful Iraq, and stands in stark contrast to the public rhetoric".

The cable says that "the next six months are crucial" - an assessment which is shared by the coalition's military commanders.

Senior military sources told the BBC it was "make or break" time. The Americans are sending thousands of extra troops to Baghdad, starting next week.

The BBC has also learned, from military sources, that British troops in Basra are planning to dramatically step up operations against Shia gunmen.

Mr Patey urges the government to ensure that Iraqi troops are brought into this effort as the British forces "can't confront the militias alone".

On Wednesday, President Jalal Talabani said Iraqi police and troops would be taking the security lead throughout the whole country by the end of the year.

Last month Mr Patey told the BBC he moved between optimism and pessimism for the country, but the situation was not hopeless.