Sunday, June 01, 2008

Adwatch: Clinton popular vote claim debatable

Associated Press

June 01, 2008 4:14 PM EDT

TITLE: "17 Million"

LENGTH: 30 seconds

AIRING: Montana and South Dakota

SCRIPT: Announcer: "Tuesday, it's up you. You can join over 17 million people who've voted for a leader to fix the economy. 17 million for a commander in chief to bring our troops home from Iraq. 17 million who want to beat John McCain. 17 million Americans have voted for Hillary Clinton. More than for any primary candidate in history. Some say there isn't a single reason for Hillary to be the Democratic nominee. They're right. There are over 17 million of them.

Clinton: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."

KEY IMAGES: The ad begins with video of individual Clinton supporters. It segues to Clinton with a factory worker, a rancher, a mother and child and with veterans. Larger crowds appear. The screen fills with the script: "More Americans have voted for Hillary Clinton than anyone in primary history." It ends with Clinton scanning a crowd as she stands in front of the American flag.

ANALYSIS: The popular vote has become Clinton's main argument to party leaders and elected officials who make up the dwindling supply of undecided superdelegates who will determine the nomination. Obama is within reach of securing the nomination this week, after Montana and South Dakota vote on Tuesday. Clinton's camp argues that while Obama leads among delegates allocated by the primary elections, she has won the popular vote.

It's a debatable point.

Clinton counts the results of Michigan, a state that until Saturday had been denied delegates because it jumped ahead of other states in violation of Democratic Party rules. Though Clinton was on the ballot, Obama withdrew his name from contention in that primary. Clinton received 328,309 votes in Michigan to none for Obama.

Clinton's claim also includes estimates for caucuses in Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington state, where no official candidate popular vote is available. Obama won Iowa, Maine and Washington state. She also includes the results from Florida, where none of the Democratic presidential candidates campaigned in advance of its primary earlier this year because the Democratic Pary had declared its delegates ineligible. Clinton won more votes than Obama in Florida.

Without Florida and Michigan in the count, Obama leads Clinton by nearly 450,000 votes in the combined popular vote in primaries and caucuses where delegates were at stake.

Moreover, under Democratic Party rules, the popular vote does not determine who the nominee is; delegates do. On that count, Obama has 2,068 delegates, leaving him 50 shy of the number needed to secure the nomination, with two primaries remaining. Clinton has 1905.5, according to the latest tally by the AP.

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