Adam Hartung
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today issued America’s latest
jobs report covering August. And it’s a disappointment. The economy
created an additional 142,000 jobs last month. After six consecutive months over 200,000, most pundits expected the string to continue, including ADP which just yesterday said 204,000 jobs were created in August.
One month variation does not change a trend
Even though the plus-200,000 monthly string was broken (unless
revised upward at a future date,) unemployment did continue to decline
and is now reported at only 6.1%. Jobless claims were just over
300,000; lowest since 2007. Despite the lower than expected August jobs
number, America will create about 2.5 million new jobs in 2014.
And that is great news.
Back in May, 2013 (15 months ago) the Dow was out of its recession doldrums and hitting new highs. I asked readers if Obama could, economically, be the best modern President?
Through discussion of that question, the number one issue raised by
readers was whether the stock market was a good economic barometer for
judging “best.” Many complained that the measure they were watching was
jobs – and that too many people were still looking for work.
To put this week’s jobs report in economic perspective I reached out to Bob Deitrick, CEO of Polaris Financial Partners and author of Bulls, Bears and the Ballot Box (which I profiled in October, 2012
just before the election) for some explanation. Since then Polaris’
investor newsletters have consistently been the best predictor of
economic performance. Better than all the major investment houses. .............
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