September 18, 2006, New York City—In a new report for The Century Foundation, Retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner warns that some in the Bush administration are making the case for air strikes aimed not only at setting back Iran’s nuclear program, but also at toppling the country’s government. He says that these officials are undeterred by the concerns of military leaders about whether such attacks would be effective.
“If this uncertainty does not appear to worry the proponents of air strikes in Iran it is in no small part because the real U.S. policy objective is not merely to eliminate the nuclear program, but to overthrow the regime,” he writes. “It is hard to believe, after the misguided talk prior to Iraq of how American troops would be greeted with flowers and welcomed as liberators, but those inside and close to the administration who are arguing for an air strike against Iran actually sound as if they believe the regime in Tehran can be eliminated by air attacks.”
In “The End of the ‘Summer of Diplomacy’: Assessing U.S. Military Options on Iran,” Gardiner explains that the policymakers’ plan is to use targeted air strikes to kill the leadership and “enable the people” of Iran to take over their government. The assumption is that more reasonable, U.S. friendly, leadership will emerge. But, Gardiner says, the plan is dangerously flawed and would more likely yield very different results.
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According to Gardiner’s report, the administration is not seriously seeking diplomatic solutions to the Iran nuclear issue. “From diplomacy to sanctions, the administration is not making good-faith efforts to avert a war so much as going through the motions, eliminating other possible strategies of engagement, until the only option left on the table is the military one,” he writes.
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