Iraq two years on: Endgame or unending war?

Two years after the fall of Baghdad, it is an open question as to whether an endgame to the insurgency is under way or whether Iraq faces a war that will drag on for years.
The optimists hope that a combination of the elections in January and the growth of indigenous security forces will eventually prevail over a rebellion which lacks fundamental popular support.

This view was summed up by US President George W Bush with the words: ''The Iraqi people are taking charge of their own destiny."
Pessimists on the other hand argue the insurgents can still mount major attacks and that the political institutions are still far too weak to provide effective leadership.

For many Iraqis, this argument goes, the "gates of hell" are still open, as predicted before the war by the head of the Arab League, Amr Moussa.
As so often, the real position is probably somewhere in-between. Cont.