Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Weakest Job Recovery On Record

Since the start of the recession 46 months ago (March 2001), a negligible 62,000 jobs have been added in the U.S. economy. Private sector jobs are still down by 703,000, a contraction of 0.6%. Both represent the worst job performance since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting monthly jobs data in 1939 (at the end of the Great Depression).

To put this performance in historical perspective, in every previous episode of recession and job decline since 1939, the number of jobs had fully recovered to above the pre-recession peak within at least 31 months after the start of the recession.

(The average, excluding the 1991 recovery, has been a full recovery of jobs by the 21st month). In the three downturns since the early 1970s, the economy had not only recovered all the jobs lost during the recession but had also generated 5.7% more jobs than existed at the start of the recession.

If this historical standard had prevailed, the economy would have had a positive job gain of 7,568,000 by what is now the 46th month of recovery, or 7,502,000 more jobs than we have today.

Job Watch

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